10-year US-euro area differential (unhedged)
The transatlantic rate gap at the benchmark maturity, measured against the euro area AAA curve so it is a comparison of two risk-free rates rather than of one risk-free rate against a periphery premium. It is the cleanest read on the Federal Reserve and the Governing Council being on different paths, and the currency usually gets there first. Unhedged: the hedged pickup needs FX forward points or the cross-currency basis and this warehouse holds neither, so the hedged figure is absent rather than estimated. A shared date is also not a shared moment, since the euro area curve is fitted to a European close and the Treasury yield is a New York one.
- Latest
- 164.78 bp
- As of
- 1 Oct 2026
- Standard deviations
- 2.84
- Percentile
- 99th percentile
30 days to 4 Oct 2026 · 140.34 bp to 170.83 bp